Fiscal Notes: How Texas Created a Recession-Resilient Economy

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 In the October issue of Fiscal Notes, the Texas Comptroller’s office examines the reasons Texas has weathered economic downturns, relative to other states: a resilient workforce; a diverse economy that encompasses oil and gas; a business-friendly environment; and a continued investment in infrastructure.

“Many of us expected an economic reckoning this year in response to federal decisions to raise interest rates, the bumpy restart of global trade and other factors,” Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar said. “We watched inflation rise to its highest level in 40 years, straining Texans’ budgets and forcing difficult decisions. As of this writing, however, we are cautiously optimistic as we monitor the economy. Growth has been slower, but we haven’t experienced the anticipated contractions.

“Our economy is better positioned than other state economies and the national economy to absorb slower growth rates.”

This issue of Fiscal Notes also looks at the ways in which higher interest rates are affecting our state. To temper inflation, the Federal Reserve has raised the effective federal funds rate 10 times since March 2022. This issue studies the effect of those increases on capital investments, consumer spending and housing, and it takes a look at the evolution of monetary policy in the U.S. over more than a century.

Fiscal Notes furthers the Comptroller’s constitutional responsibility to monitor the state’s economy and estimate state government revenues. It has been published since 1975, featuring in-depth analysis concerning state finances and original research by subject-matter experts in the Comptroller’s office.